AND THE WINNER IS -- ENVELOPE PLEASE! -- Just A Minute for Thursday 10-23-08

            Hello again…

 

            Here we are drawing closer to… I’ll bet you thought I was going to say Friday… well… correct… but we’re also about a dozen days away from finalizing our votes for President and all the other races on your local ballot. When we lived in Virginia it was a bit of a drag… *Every* fall season brought an election. The Governor’s office was – at that time – only for two years I believe and other statewide offices – but they were on alternate years from the Congressional House and Senate races of the U.S. congress – as well as the Presidential race only every four years.  But *every* year for the Virginia ‘local’ races. It gets a bit tiring.

 

            This particular race has had the same problem because the Democrat primaries fired up across the landscape by January of 2005… there were so many candidates in the starting blocks including Mr. Obama – who possibly lit the fire under the rest of them – although Miz Hillirary wasn’t far behind in ambition and fund raising. So… we’ve had an election cycle and a half. It’s hard to think back to when people *weren’t* running. I can stand a break – how about you?

 

            Problem is with the ACORN effort that has bollixed up the efforts in half a dozen states – there’s likely to be a month or two of hasseling going on just to comb out the tangles of this election. Well.. nothing to be done about it now… But let’s see what can be done later. 

 

            Today we ask the expertise of Michael Barone to help us untangle the political polls… see what you can make of this mess. Perhaps our collective effort can have an effect. I certainly hope so.  For a nation that’s supposed to be good at governing ourselves – we seem to be having a difficult time.

 

            Thanks for tuning in.

 

            Cordially, IN HIM

                        Jack

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/audio/jama10-23-08.mp3

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/scripts/jamt10-23-08.doc

 

 

“JUST A MINUTE”

AND THE WINNER IS – THE ENVELOPE PLEASE…

Just A Minute – I call on Michel Barone, who writes for U.S. News and edits the Almanac of American Politics to help interpret polls.

Essentially Michael says: “… political polls are imperfect instruments. Reading them right is less a science than an art. We can trust the polls, with qualifications.”  He says only half of those approached by exit pollsters will do it – so you get the more enthusiastic supporters. Also age groups vary in participation: younger fewer – older more. Averaging these factors -- realclearpolitics.com estimates Obama leads McCain by about five percent.

The big undecided factor is – well – the undecided; a larger group this year than in the past. Add the Electoral College… which makes it possible to win the presidency but lose the popular vote. If Obama wins the votes of a larger slice of undecideds -- or if a significant number don't vote -- he'll could win a popular vote majority, something only one Democratic nominee, Jimmy Carter, has done in the last 40 years.

          So – altogether, where does that leave us? Undecided!

        <> I’m Jack Buttram

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