IT'S THAT OLD PREDICTIN' BUSINESS AGAIN -- For Just a MINUTE Radio 10106

            Once more we’re at the middle of the week… and I’m getting this on the web rather late in the evening. (Or actually – morning.)

 

            My brain seems to want to slow down and almost turn off when I un-diligently allow myself to work this late. It’s just a matter of time management – I tell myself… but still I lack the self-discipline to ignore the various mail pieces and messages I’ll have to handle tomorrow… and get on with it.

 

            Today’s program deals with the ‘bombshell’ the Gallop organization dropped yesterday. I’m not a *great* fan of polls – although with so many different ones floating around now there does seem to be a greater semblance of accuracy.  HOWEVER… Voting and polling are NOT the same thing. And it’s important to keep that tattooed on the underside of your eyelids when we get this close to an election.

 

            The various camps – whose interests are NOT the same as the politicians whose progress the pollsters are trying to track. A great deal of difference results when the questions are worded differently; when the time of day or night they are asked varies; when the order of the questions is jiggled; and even what *else* is going on in the news cycle that day varies – and at this crucial time, it ­surely does!

 

            I’m not a professional pollster… and in fact I think I’ve been lured into mistaken ideas more often than not by possibly well meaning guys and girls professing to do their job of measuring public sentiment only – and not trying to trip me (or you) up --  but trying to help their candidate win.  A poll showing a BIG jump is news that tends to be self-fulfilling. But often the balloon pops.  The bubble that started to take on a life of its own is punctured by events, or too much other news crowding it out, or even weather – and like the guy in the ‘GOLD’ commercial has said about a million times this year “and the timing may never have been better.”

 

            There is, in this, part magic – part guesswork – part science and statistics game an admixture that is very hard to figure out or sift out the truth or something. I sometimes think polls do more to confuse us than they do to help us understand.  All that to say, it’s rather like picking a winning game before the kickoff or the jump ball or the first pitch … whatever.  Crystal balls are most often cloudy or deceiving, so do like the rest of us do and just take it as it comes – well maybe you can do like you did in elementary school – cross your fingers behind your back. (J)

 

            Cordially, IN HIM

 

            Jack

Delayed audio link:

 

http://www.wmuu.com/blog/category/audio/just-a-minute/

 

 

“JUST A MINUTE”

IT’S THAT OLD PREDICTIN’ BUSINESS AGAIN

 

Homer: JUST A MINUTE: – Mr. Jack – Has you read the Perdictions Mr. Gallop is mekin’?

Jack: I just scanned ‘em Homer.

BB: He’s a-sayin’ th’ pollin’ numbers when you look at ‘em close, is worser than in 1994.

MizP: “Worser” ain’t a good word ta use Beelie.

BB: Ah know … I jist cunt thank of th’ rite one.

Jack: That bad, Huh?

Homer: The Gallop peepul sez – an Ah ain’t a-meking this up – tha-ut if’n you apply the’ rite

            correctives … hit goes bad alla way back ta Grover Cleveland.

MizP: Whut in th’ worl does ‘at mean?

BB: Mr. Michael Barone – you know him?

MizP: He writes ‘at big ole Almanac of ‘Merican Politics … rite?

Jack: He is  quite an authority on elections.

Homer: Enny-way, back in 1994 th’ ‘rpublicans won 54 House seats…

MizP: Yeah… go on…

Homer: Well in 1894 when Grover Cleveland was Prezidint, th party ‘ginst him won a-hunnert seats.

MizP: Oh My…

Homer: They ain’t a-predickin’ tha-ut but…

BB: But hit be’gins ta look like a BIG ‘lectric tidal wave…

MizP: Well Ah’s heerd ‘em say even Barnydoor Frank is a-sweatin’ hit out.

Jack: Aw… really?

Homer: When you gits’s one ov ‘em BIG tidal waves a-comin’ atcher… you better watch out.

MizP: And I’ve heered even ‘The man frum Searchlite’ is worried.

BB: Th’ man frum Searchlite?

MizP: Tha-ut’s th’ little town Sen. Ried is frum in Nevaddi.

BB: Oh… yeah… Well, If’n he looses, at’ll shore turn off his lite.

Jack: Well, I had hoped we’d have some time for political jokes today….

Homer: Don’t worry ‘bout tha-ut Mr. Jack …

MizP: No, don’t ‘cause most of ‘em has awreddy bin ‘elected.

Jack: Now Miz Pearlie… is that kind?

MizP: Ah… No… I reckon not.  A’ll take hit back…

Jack: Hmmm… sorry about that … it’s a bit too late… and we’ve got to be going. See you next week.

            <> I’m Jack Buttram. (END)

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