THE CRYSTAL BALL ROLLS AROUND THE TABLE - Just A Minute - Radio for Thursday 101021

            Once again… Greetings from statistics land…

 

            When you get down close enough to an election that you wish they would just quit talking about it and VOTE and that would be all… you know it’s been long enough.  I’ve delivered my speech several times about requiring a change-over to the British system of limiting campaigning to nothing more than a month… which would cut down on the amount of money that could be spent in that time also. But so far… everybody has been so busy winning the next election, nobody has had time to get rid of the plague.

 

            However… we’ll keep plugging at it!

 

            Today I tried to skim the cream off the top of the Senate contest. It is THE one most have said is unlikely to be overturned in one fell swoop – although that’s what they thought about the election in 1994 when both houses of Congress changed management under President Clinton’s rein for the first two years of his eight years as President. So … perhaps History will choose to be repeated this time.

 

            I could only get in the polling results from one pollster – Rasmussen – crammed into 60 seconds that JUST A MINUTE has on the air. So… I went for the top five closest contests as measured by the pollsters at this juncture… and that’s what’s on tap for today.  You’ll hear me huffing and puffing to get through just that much in 60 seconds. I don’t make a prediction – just the FACTS Ma’m – as Jack Webb used to say. And even the facts get stale and spoil under the duress of time and events.  So… we do the best we can with what we have.

 

            Rasmussen is a respected pollster. He’s not been at it as long as the Gallup organization has – and maybe next time I’ll turn there. But he was predicting Sen. Brown’s victory in Massachusetts to take Teddy Kennedy’s seat – and called it correctly. He pretty much sticks to polling a standard number… about 750.,.. which isn’t huge but apparently large enough for sufficient accuracy – and he seems to be fairly unbiased in the wording of his questions… which makes his product generally more accurate according to the polling gurus. 

 

            I profess no expertise in this field whatsoever.  I have just hung around long enough to know there are many ways to be wrong about predicting outcomes – so I tend to stand on the sidelines – and that’s what this is.  All those surveyed were not done on one day… as the election is… (except for the early and late voters… especially those ‘dug up’ to make a sufficient number in Illinois and certain other states. (L)… but we won’t go there today.

 

            Tomorrow I’ll have to do even more data compressing… but I think the House decision is about all ready made… we’ll see. And then we’ll coast toward the finish line with all kinds of late data floating around and causing still more confusion. But polling – like a square wheel on the farm wagon – Uncle Cyrus said: “It’s not the best… but it’s better than no wheel a’tall!”  Sounds good to me.

 

            Cordially, IN HIM

 

            Jack Buttram

 

       Delayed audio link:

 

http://www.wmuu.com/blog/category/audio/just-a-minute/

 

 

“JUST A MINUTE”

THE CRYSTAL BALL ROLLS AROUND THE TABLE

          Just a Minute: -- The Senate seems the most volatile indicator of the coming election – let’s look at five close contests: California, Illinois, Washington, West Virginia, and Nevada. 

          Republican John Raese, on October 20^th opened up a seven-point lead over West Virginia Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin; his largest so far. ## In California, Democrat Barbara Boxer holds a slight lead over the GOP’s Carly Fiorina -- Boxer has 49%; Fiorina 46% -- survey is a week old and within the margin of error. ## Illinois – GOP candidate Mark Kirk has 45% of the vote, while Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has 41%  – also about a week old near margin of error.  ##. Washington State – Democrat Patty Murray, 49% incumbent barely ahead of Republican challenger, Dino Rossi 46% -- less than a week old, and within margin of error. ## Nevada – Sen. Harry Reid – Democrat Majority leader against GOP challenger Sharron Angle. Angle has 50% to Reid’s 47% within margin of error.

These surveys are “Rasmussen” results of 750 Likely Voters.

          Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the House, next week we’ll try to bat clean-up. It’s a complicated game.  

¨      I’m Jack Buttram.

. (END)                                        Jebco Editorial Service

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