DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER - Just a Minute for June 25th 2008

Sometimes we make progress – some times we don’t …

 

It seems the same on the campaign trail. This weekend both major candidates stumbled into the world of the futures market… which probably not one person out of fifty or more doesn’t understand. My old economics professor explained it so I could understand it… but still warned us to stay away… for the Amateurs, he said, it just amounts to gambling… and we all know where that leads. Well… too bad my old prof isn’t around to advise Senators McCain and Obama… neither seems to grasp the futures market, including the speculators, is just a means of developing price points. To think you can solve the gas crisis by tinkering with regulating the market more severely – you might as well put new gas gages in every car that showed the tank is nearly full. People who know the markets know there are lots of scams… but to think speculators control the market – except in very rare and infrequent circumstance – is like putting a new face on the steam gage to lower the pressure.  It doesn’t solve the problem.

 

But then as a matter of fact and history – politicians are not always adept at grasping reality. That is to say it’s often easy to mistake the cause for the effect – or somewhat like the legend of King Canute who sat on the seashore commanding the tide not to come in. I just found out this week… the king was doing that to convince his courtiers that when it came to tides… his kingly command was indeed worthless. I take it he ruined a good pair of shoes by that practical example… But I digress.

 

We are into the unreal world of campaigning with promises… rhetoric…more smoke and mirrors than a stage magician’s convention. Just don’t take too seriously all you hear on the trail. Recall that press secretary’s jobs depend on doing what the boss wants them to do.  In general they are not expert counselors except in their areas of expertise which is to say having a good idea which reporters or news organizations are friendly and which are hostile. My advice to candidates entering controversial areas is to recall TV reporters especially would love it if you would fight and preferably in the street where his camera crew can get a good picture for the 6 PM news.

 

Maybe I sound too cynical. It’s just at this season of the campaign cycle… do more listening than you do talking is always safe advice.

 

Cordially, IN HIM

 

Jack

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/audio/jama06-25-08.mp3

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/scripts/jamt06-25-08.doc

 

 

“JUST A MINUTE”

DON’T SHOOT THE MESSENGER

 

MizP: Just a Minit – “Don’t shoot the messenger” -- Whut does at mean?

Jack: Miz Pearl, it means if someone brings bad news don’t shoot him he’s just the messenger. Homer: *Both* McCain and Obama say they’ll git us cheaper gas by regulatin’ th’ speculators.

Jack: They’re looking for a culprit and speculators are an easy target.

BB: They’s gamblers ain’t they?

Jack: No more than you are if you wait til next week to buy gas guessing it may go down.

 MizP: Well, I don’t understand it.

Jack: That’s why you and I need to stay out of the futures market. It’s a zero sum game.

BB: Whut does that mean?

Jack: For every winner – there has to be a loser in the futures market…for every correct guess somebody guessed wrong. The result is zero.

BB: At makes my head hurt.

Jack: That’s why you’re not a futures trader. Too many wrong judgments and you’re out. Some make a living trading futures some lose their money. But you can’t force gas prices down just by closing off the market.

BB: I don’t unnerstand hit just like Miz Pearlie…

Jack: Look – it’s not a game for amateurs – and apparently not for presidential candidates.

Homer: Sounds to me like you’re a-sayin’ they don’t know whut they’re tawkin’ about.  

Jack: The commodities futures market just develops price information – it’s a message … don’t shoot!… <> I’m Jack Buttram

 (END)

 

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