Howdy again folks…
We’re slipping into the silly season for polling and campaigning. With only about 56 days left until the contest is decided – everybody enters the sweepstakes trying to outguess the other on what’s happening in the collective voters’ mind. Complicating the calculation is the ancient electoral college. It becomes a guessing game with many unknown factors.
In November 1948 everyone *THOUGHT* they knew Tom Dewey would win the election. The Chicago Daily Tribune’s infamous headline still resonates in encyclopedic accounts of mistakes news media made. The grinning, President Harry S. Truman is pictured holding up the Trib’s front page headline in huge type. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. So… we’re perilously near going down that same road again.
Nothing is more dangerous to a political campaign than overconfidence. Conservatives have felt for so long like a “long-tailed cat in a room full of rockin’ chairs” they are close to making Gov. Sarah Palin into something she is not and doesn’t claim to be – perfect. As a Christian she knows we are all at the same level at the foot of the Cross…only sinners saved by God’s grace.
Better tone down the rhetoric, pull in the horns– and say what we know who we are and what we stand for rather than have to lose in humiliation. “Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.” Proverbs 16:18. We need only be reminded of the recent cases of Governor Spitzer and Senator Edwards.
Cordially, IN HIM
Jack
http://www.jebcovoice.net/audio/jama09-09-08.mp3
http://www.jebcovoice.net/scripts/jamt09-09-08.doc
“JUST A MINUTE”
YOU WANT POLLS -- YOU GOT POLLS
Just A Minute – I don’t really care for polls at this point in election cycles. They’ve let me down too often to be trusted. But then I sneak a peek – to see if they say what I want to hear – and that’s the problem.
If you want polls… here’s a number: REAL CLEAR POLITICS averages out a lot of polls… but their current composite number yesterday had McCain ahead by three points. “Don’t trust it.” My gut says…
Look a little deeper: CNN says it’s tie. Rasmussen (who says the most accurate numbers will show today after the conventions) He has McCain ahead by one; USA TODAY/GALLUP says McCain’s ahead by ten. I don’t trust that one either… on the other hand… Oh stop wishing! See what I mean? History says the one who’s ahead at Labor Day crosses the November finish line first.
So tomorrow Billy-bob and friends will do their analysis. We’ll look at interesting numbers coming out of the Dakotas – small states but big samples – and a windsock quite a bit removed from the hot air blasts of
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