NOBODY KNOWS, EVERYBODY'S GUESSING -- Just A Minute Radio for Tuesday 120424

Wonderful brisk day in the neighborhood don’t you think. I hope the orchardists think so and suffer no losses.

 

With all the data flying around… 1001 opinions of who’s ahead of whom and how much… it’s a bit of a puzzle to figure out what’s actually going on out there in the election-land. So… I try  to simplify a little.

 

The Rasmussen Poll seems to be the most accurate – at least so far in the contests that have been gone after this year. Even there with so much data from so many states – and everything isn’t uniform in the way it’s counted and administered one wonders that we have anything like accurate elections. If you look at some of the voting districts divided up in the states and by the states you get an Idea of what I’m describing. There’s too much jelly to get on one slice of bread … especially with all the peanut butter. (J)

 

So today I’m taking a swipe at trying to stick to a uniform yardstick we can come back to and at least get a rough idea of what’s happening out there in the electoral hinterlands.

 

The Rasmussen polls I’ve found to be the most accurate for a couple of reasons I believe.  1) He sticks with uniform methods. And also likely voters.  I believe he polls about 500 people via telephone calls  (and I think that’s including some cell phones as a more vital factor.)  And secondly he uses robo-calling… 2) that’s having the same voice ask the same questions in the same order with the same inflections etc. and takes at least *some*  of the variations out of the process.

 

He polls and posts the results of the tracking polls every day – or almost every day accounting for holidays etc.  The results are counted up in a very uniform manner and I’ve found his predictions to be the most accurate of the regular pollsters. Anyway I find Rasmussen to be a real credit to the data gathering world.

 

Maybe we’ll have more data to compare with results and even have a more accurate field of information to rake over and dissect when we’re trying to identify trends before the polls are counted.

 

Well… that’s enough for this evening/morning wherever you are. May the Lord bless your efforts too.

 

Cordially, IN HIM

 

Jack & Barbara