Thursday, April 12, 2012

MICHAEL BARONE SIZES UP THE ODDS -- Just A Minute Radio for Friday 120413

The race perhaps isn’t ‘officially’ over – certainly Newt does not admit it – until the ‘fat lady sings’ [according to Yogi of the Yankees] – so not wishing to mortify various people I won’t point any fingers. I’ll just toddle on in the direction of  the finish line while we discuss the prospects of what’s going to happen. 

 

Independently I reached the conclusion that Mr. Rasmussen’s calls had the highest number of accurate or near accurate results. So, his posting in the mornings is the data I generally trust the most. Mr. Barone also reads his and the Bloomberg data because theirs are the two polling efforts that restrict themselves to likely voters. (I guess it’s cheaper and sometimes more fulfilling to poll more or less as the wind blows.)

 

In any case a survey is a survey – even ‘for real’ elections are sometimes deep in the weeds, as we learned almost 12 years ago when the Bush vs. Gore race got lost in the Florida Everglades – and the New Englanders for some reasons haven’t given up on arguing about it yet! So Voting… especially in the ‘flexible’ (make that read ‘machine’) states like Illinois just order up what they need from ‘downstate’ to make a close election come out close to them. Strong rumor *still* has LBJ winning his first try at TX congressional politics by 97 votes down near the border – and I don’t ever expect to find a Congressional Committee that can dig up data to contradict that.

 

Well…enough about ‘crooked’ politics. There will never be enough honest people to *completely* close out the crooks. But with prayer we can either make a dent in the result or prevent it from having the effect the crooks desired.

 

OK…It’s the end of the week, my stomach is growling in a most unwholesome sound. So I’ve got to go for this week. But keep on praying and we *will* find our way out of the wilderness by the Lord’s grace. Have a great weekend – and we’ll be together again on Monday!  Amen?

 

God Bless you all… IN HIM,

 

Jack & Barbara

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“JUST A MINUTE”

MICHAEL BARONE SIZES UP THE ODDS

          Just a Minute: Michael Barone, is one of America’s reserved and unbiased observers of political trends and outcomes. He’s one of the trustworthy political pundits I’ve seen he doesn’t have his own ‘ax to grind.’ Here are a couple of his reasons why Romney’s margins aren’t so great right now.

            “One reason is his campaign and the super PAC backing him have spent most of their ad dollars battering down successive rivals who rose in the polls. The positive case for Romney has gotten much less of an airing.

          “But general elections involving sitting presidents usually turn out to be verdicts on the incumbent. Challengers who meet minimal standards tend to win if most voters want the incumbent out.

          “Which is, or is close to being, the case today. Note that the two national pollsters who limit their samples to likely voters, Rasmussen and Bloomberg, show the race a tie. … [However] polls show this year, unlike 2008, Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.”

          I’m praying the news continues to be good. <I’m Jack Buttram.> (END)

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