OBAMAPHOBIA ANYONE? - Just A Minute Radio for 7-31-08

Howdy Folks… Don’t get itchy now….we’re nearing the weekend… [g]    

 

Frankly, I’m not much of a believer in polls. Once I get cranked up thinking they’re getting more accurate… then there’s a big kerfluffle of a mistake… and the explanations start flying. Really I think a poll should be viewed very much like a weather vane on a red barn during a blustery wind storm…  Why a red barn?  Just to give the picture a little more color. [g] Get’s kinda dull otherwise.

 

The weather vane was originally designed – crafted probably – I doubt there was a drawing board or even a rough sketch involved. It was crafted to show a ship’s captain whether the wind was favorable for the coming tide or not… if he had to go straight down a narrow channel and the wind was from the opposite direction… he’d save his temper by awaiting a change in the wind… indicated by the weather (wind) vane. Also in defense of calling it “weather vane” the wind usually does swing around and come from a different quarter when a weather front passes – but I’ve never been expert enough to figure that out. It remains on my list of things to do --- sometime.

 

Back to polls…. The biggest errors used to show up in the polls conducted via telephone. For some reason it was hard to get a representative sample in a short time – especially in the days of the rotary dial phone. Plus in the early days you probably divided demographics with a cleaver by expecting telephone patrons to be of a uniform sample. Telephones were expensive and not uniformly distributed amongst voters. 

 

Well… polling is a fascinating business… and I know in Washington the old saying used to be – “There are lies; there are [deleted] lies; and there are statistics.”  Generally disparaging of the businesses trying to tell us what is in the future by asking questions of a sample and projecting it on the majority. Some politicians swear by it – others just swear at it. Don’t get bent out of shape on polls – especially early ones.

 

Cordially, IN HIM

 

Jack

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/audio/jama07-31-08.mp3

 

http://www.jebcovoice.net/scripts/jamt07-31-08.doc

 

 

 

“JUST A MINUTE”

OBAMAPHOBIA  ANYONE?

Just A Minute – Revisiting polling data finds right now people are more concerned about the kind of man is Senator Obama than getting their questions answered about Senator McCain.

At present 47% say they prefer Obama over the 41% who prefer McCain – that’s about the same lead Obama enjoyed a month ago with an error margin around three percent either way. It appears Americans are more concerned about figuring out an unusual candidate presenting himself as one who brings *change* -- which voters seem to say they want, but can’t pin down just what it is they do want.

In 1980 the electorate seemed ready to toss over the change Jimmy Carter had brought – but they weren’t sure, until late in the election cycle, they were ready for a former actor, California Governor Ronald Reagan, who had become an unabashed conservative after campaigning for Senator Goldwater in 1964.

Democrat pollster Peter Hart, and Republican Neil Newhouse, run the NBC/Wall St. Journal poll --  their conclusion at the moment is:  "Voters want an answer to a simple question: Is Barack Obama safe?"

<> I’m Jack Buttram

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